Is the market historically cheap or expensive?

Six gauges, each answering a different question. Two on valuation — what the market costs against the economy and against a decade of earnings. Two on sentiment — what people are paying for protection and what they say they expect. Two on money — the discount rate under every valuation and the size of the liquidity tide.

None of them times anything. Each one tells you something about the price you are starting from.

Buffett Indicator

2 Oct 2026

236%

Significantly Overvalued

Higher than 93% of months since 1989.

1m ▲ 2%1y ▲ 4%Read more →

Shiller PE (CAPE)

2 Oct 2026

41.4×

Expensive

Higher than 97% of months since 1871. Comparable to Mar 1999.

1m ▲ 0.4×1y ▲ 0.5×Read more →

CBOE VIX

1 Oct 2026

16.4

Calm

Higher than 42% of trading days since 1990. Comparable to Feb 2004, Jan 2011, Jan 2020.

1m ▲ 1.21y ▼ 0.0Read more →

AAII Sentiment

30 Sept 2026

−12pp

Bearish

Higher than 29% of weeks since 2026.

1m ▼ +14ppRead more →

10-Year Treasury Yield

1 Oct 2026

5.2%

High

Higher than 49% of trading days since 1962. Comparable to Aug 1966, Sep 1993, Jan 2001.

1m ▲ 0.5%1y ▲ 1.1%Read more →

Fed Balance Sheet

30 Sept 2026

$6.74T

Large

Higher than 79% of weeks since 2002. Comparable to May 2020.

1m ▲ $0.01T1y ▲ $0.16TRead more →

Sources: FRED (St. Louis Fed) · multpl.com · CBOE · AAII · Federal Reserve H.4.1. Readings are published for information only and are not investment advice.