Fed Balance Sheet
The liquidity tide — how much of today's price is money rather than business.
$6.74T
Large
As of 30 Sept 2026 · Weekly (Thursday)
Higher than 79% of weeks since 2002. Comparable to May 2020.
History
What the Fed Balance Sheet is
This is the total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet: every Treasury, mortgage-backed security and lending facility the Fed holds, reported weekly. It sat under $1 trillion for decades, reached roughly $9 trillion after the pandemic response, and has been running off since 2022.
It is on this page because the multiple expansion that carried US equities from 2009 onward did not come from earnings alone. It came alongside a balance sheet that grew nearly tenfold, and the 2022 drawdown came alongside the first sustained runoff. The gauge is an attempt to say how much of today's price is liquidity rather than business performance — a question no valuation ratio and no sentiment survey can answer.
How it is built
The Fed publishes total assets each Thursday afternoon in its H.4.1 release, as of the preceding Wednesday. The raw series is denominated in millions of dollars; this page converts once to trillions, which is the unit every commentator quotes and the only one a gauge can render legibly.
The history begins in December 2002, so it spans the pre-crisis baseline, all three rounds of quantitative easing, the 2018–19 runoff, the pandemic expansion and the current tightening.
Source: FRED WALCL (Federal Reserve total assets) · series page
How to read it
The bands are named eras rather than judgements, which is what makes them legible: under $2T is the pre-2008 balance sheet, $2–4T covers QE1 through QE3 and the 2018–19 runoff, $4–6T the late-QE3 plateau, $6–8T post-COVID and where the runoff has landed, and above $8T the 2021–22 high-water mark.
Read the slope, not the level. A balance sheet that is large and shrinking is a tightening liquidity condition; one that is smaller but expanding is loosening. The change over recent months tells you more about the current tide than the absolute figure does.
Bands
- Minimalbelow $2.00T
- Moderate$2.00T – $4.00T
- Elevated$4.00T – $6.00T
- Large$6.00T – $8.00T
- Peak$8.00T and above
What it does not tell you
Balance-sheet size is a crude proxy for liquidity. What actually reaches markets depends on the Treasury General Account, the reverse repo facility and bank reserve demand, all of which can move hundreds of billions without the headline total changing. Net liquidity measures that subtract those accounts are the more careful version of this idea.
The link to equity prices is a correlation observed over one regime, not a mechanism. Attributing a move in stocks to a move in the balance sheet is a story, and it is worth holding loosely.
Latest FOMC statement
Raised 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% on 16 Sept 2026, by a 12–0 vote. The Federal Reserve's own words follow, unedited — the statement is about 150 words, so a summary of it would only lose information.
The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.
Press release on federalreserve.gov · Summary of Economic Projections
Next meeting: 27 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026.
The other gauges
- Buffett IndicatorTotal US stock market value divided by the size of the US economy.
- Shiller PE (CAPE)The S&P 500 priced against ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings.
- CBOE VIXWhat the options market is charging for the next thirty days of risk.
- AAII SentimentHow bullish individual investors say they are — the classic contrarian read.
- 10-Year Treasury YieldThe discount rate underneath every valuation on the platform.
Published for information only, not investment advice. Readings refresh hourly; the as-of date above is the date of the underlying observation.