Is the market historically cheap or expensive?
Six gauges, each answering a different question. Two on valuation — what the market costs against the economy and against a decade of earnings. Two on sentiment — what people are paying for protection and what they say they expect. Two on money — the discount rate under every valuation and the size of the liquidity tide.
None of them times anything. Each one tells you something about the price you are starting from.
Buffett Indicator
13 Nov 2026228%
Significantly Overvalued
Higher than 82% of months since 1989.
Shiller PE (CAPE)
13 Nov 202640.0×
Expensive
Higher than 94% of months since 1871. Comparable to Feb 1999, Nov 2021.
CBOE VIX
13 Nov 202619.3
Calm
Higher than 59% of trading days since 1990. Comparable to Dec 1991, Apr 2002, Jan 2015.
AAII Sentiment
11 Nov 2026−21pp
Capitulation
Higher than 7% of weeks since 2026.
10-Year Treasury Yield
12 Nov 20265.1%
High
Higher than 47% of trading days since 1962. Comparable to Jul 1966, Sep 1998, Jan 2002.
Fed Balance Sheet
11 Nov 2026$6.76T
Large
Higher than 80% of weeks since 2002. Comparable to May 2020.
Sources: FRED (St. Louis Fed) · multpl.com · CBOE · AAII · Federal Reserve H.4.1. Readings are published for information only and are not investment advice.