published May 8, 2026 · price now $63.69 · market cap $14.3B
WATCH · medium confidence — the research’s call on buying at the price it saw, not advice to you.
Information only, not investment advice. Written by AI research agents from SEC filings and market data, and it can be wrong. Check the model below before relying on any of it.
Temporary fallback for Risk Judge
Primary model call timed out or the provider returned a transient error. Trigger: TimeoutError: Risk Judge exceeded 420s without producing a result
Interim stance: WATCH until a fresh pass is available.
Available evidence from the current analyst handoff bundle: Analyst: Fundamentals Analyst Stance: WATCH Sections: Year Financial Metrics for CVNA | Year Financial Metrics | Profitability Metrics
Price: $400
P/E: 231.23
ROE: 40.9%
Gross margin: 20.6%
Return on Equity (ROE): 40.9%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): -65.1%
Return on Assets (ROA): 10.7%
Gross Margin: 20.6%
Analyst: Value Analyst Stance: AVOID Sections: Buffett-Style Value Analysis: Carvana Co. — CVNA | Go / No-Go Gate Assessment | Business Description: Elementary School Test
Buffett average value: $490
FCF average value: $113
Damodaran average value: $-0.53
Current price: $400
Discount rate: 10%, consistent with Buffett-style opportunity cost.
Shares estimated from market cap divided by price: about 794 million shares.
Owner earnings proxy: $0.95 billion.
These are rough intrinsic value estimates, not precision forecasts.
Analyst: Growth Analyst Stance: AVOID Sections: CVNA Growth Investment Report — Carvana Co. | Lynch Classification | The Story in 3 Bullets
Revenue growth YoY: 48.6%
Net income growth YoY: 570.0%
FCF growth YoY: 7.5%
Carvana sells used cars online with a simpler, more convenient customer experience than traditional dealers.
The company is regrowing units and revenue while extracting operating leverage from its reconditioning, logistics, financing, and digital retail infrastructure.
If execution remains excellent, Carvana can keep taking share in a fragmented used-car market — but the current market cap already assumes a very large share of the future opportunity.
Analyst: Market Analyst
ANALYST STANCE: WATCH #### CVNA Technical Report — Latest Data Through 2026-05-07 CVNA has staged a strong rebound from its March lows near the mid-to-high $50s and recently reclaimed several important trend reference...
ANALYST STANCE: WATCH
The model
Every input behind the value range, so you can check the work or change an assumption and redo it yourself. Computed deterministically from SEC filings (fiscal 2025), updated Oct 4, 2026; the market price was $63.69. Values are estimates, not predictions.
Free cash flow
Discounts reported free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital expenditure.
Value per share: −$4.22 / $37.63 / $37.63(conservative / base / optimistic)
Starting Free Cash Flow
$832M
Growth: conservative / base / optimistic (2020–2025)
-75.4% / 20.1% / 20.1%
Projection
10 years
Discount rate
9.4%
Terminal growth
4.5%
Shares outstanding
740M
The history the growth rates come from (11 years)
2015
−$68M
2016
−$280M
2017
−$284M
2018
−$582M
2019
−$1.0B
2020
−$993M
2021
−$3.2B
2022
−$1.9B
2023
$643M
2024
$736M
2025
$793M
Two-stage FCFF (Damodaran)
Projects revenue, operating margin and reinvestment, then discounts free cash flow to the firm at the weighted cost of capital.
Value per share: −$303.97 / $36.29 / $362.12(conservative / base / optimistic)
Starting Damodaran FCFF
$1.9B
Growth: conservative / base / optimistic (2015–2025)
25.0% / 25.0% / 35.0%
Projection
10 years
Risk-free rate
5.28%
Equity risk premium
4.15%
Beta
1.00
Cost of equity
9.43%
After-tax cost of debt
10.02%
Equity weight
75%
WACC (discount rate)
9.57%
Target operating margin (base)
3.2%
High-growth stage
5 years
Terminal growth
2.5%
Shares outstanding
224M
This briefing is from May 8, 2026. A fresh one re-reads the latest filings and prices; running it takes a free account.