Is the market historically cheap or expensive?
Six gauges, each answering a different question. Two on valuation — what the market costs against the economy and against a decade of earnings. Two on sentiment — what people are paying for protection and what they say they expect. Two on money — the discount rate under every valuation and the size of the liquidity tide.
None of them times anything. Each one tells you something about the price you are starting from.
Buffett Indicator
2 Oct 2026236%
Significantly Overvalued
Higher than 93% of months since 1989.
Shiller PE (CAPE)
2 Oct 202641.4×
Expensive
Higher than 97% of months since 1871. Comparable to Mar 1999.
CBOE VIX
1 Oct 202616.4
Calm
Higher than 42% of trading days since 1990. Comparable to Feb 2004, Jan 2011, Jan 2020.
AAII Sentiment
30 Sept 2026−12pp
Bearish
Higher than 29% of weeks since 2026.
10-Year Treasury Yield
1 Oct 20265.2%
High
Higher than 49% of trading days since 1962. Comparable to Aug 1966, Sep 1993, Jan 2001.
Fed Balance Sheet
30 Sept 2026$6.74T
Large
Higher than 79% of weeks since 2002. Comparable to May 2020.
Sources: FRED (St. Louis Fed) · multpl.com · CBOE · AAII · Federal Reserve H.4.1. Readings are published for information only and are not investment advice.