CVNA · DEEP VALUE BRIEFING

CARVANA CO. (CVNA)

published May 8, 2026 · price now $63.69 · market cap $14.3B

WATCH · medium confidence — the research’s call on buying at the price it saw, not advice to you.

Information only, not investment advice. Written by AI research agents from SEC filings and market data, and it can be wrong. Check the model below before relying on any of it.

Temporary fallback for Risk Judge

Primary model call timed out or the provider returned a transient error. Trigger: TimeoutError: Risk Judge exceeded 420s without producing a result

Interim stance: WATCH until a fresh pass is available.

Available evidence from the current analyst handoff bundle: Analyst: Fundamentals Analyst Stance: WATCH Sections: Year Financial Metrics for CVNA | Year Financial Metrics | Profitability Metrics

  • Price: $400
  • P/E: 231.23
  • ROE: 40.9%
  • Gross margin: 20.6%
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 40.9%
  • Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): -65.1%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 10.7%
  • Gross Margin: 20.6%

Analyst: Value Analyst Stance: AVOID Sections: Buffett-Style Value Analysis: Carvana Co. — CVNA | Go / No-Go Gate Assessment | Business Description: Elementary School Test

  • Buffett average value: $490
  • FCF average value: $113
  • Damodaran average value: $-0.53
  • Current price: $400
  • Discount rate: 10%, consistent with Buffett-style opportunity cost.
  • Shares estimated from market cap divided by price: about 794 million shares.
  • Owner earnings proxy: $0.95 billion.
  • These are rough intrinsic value estimates, not precision forecasts.

Analyst: Growth Analyst Stance: AVOID Sections: CVNA Growth Investment Report — Carvana Co. | Lynch Classification | The Story in 3 Bullets

  • Revenue growth YoY: 48.6%
  • Net income growth YoY: 570.0%
  • FCF growth YoY: 7.5%
  • Carvana sells used cars online with a simpler, more convenient customer experience than traditional dealers.
  • The company is regrowing units and revenue while extracting operating leverage from its reconditioning, logistics, financing, and digital retail infrastructure.
  • If execution remains excellent, Carvana can keep taking share in a fragmented used-car market — but the current market cap already assumes a very large share of the future opportunity.

Analyst: Market Analyst

  • ANALYST STANCE: WATCH #### CVNA Technical Report — Latest Data Through 2026-05-07 CVNA has staged a strong rebound from its March lows near the mid-to-high $50s and recently reclaimed several important trend reference...

ANALYST STANCE: WATCH

The model

Every input behind the value range, so you can check the work or change an assumption and redo it yourself. Computed deterministically from SEC filings (fiscal 2025), updated Oct 4, 2026; the market price was $63.69. Values are estimates, not predictions.

Free cash flow

Discounts reported free cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital expenditure.

Value per share: −$4.22 / $37.63 / $37.63 (conservative / base / optimistic)

Starting Free Cash Flow$832M
Growth: conservative / base / optimistic (2020–2025)-75.4% / 20.1% / 20.1%
Projection10 years
Discount rate9.4%
Terminal growth4.5%
Shares outstanding740M
The history the growth rates come from (11 years)
2015−$68M
2016−$280M
2017−$284M
2018−$582M
2019−$1.0B
2020−$993M
2021−$3.2B
2022−$1.9B
2023$643M
2024$736M
2025$793M

Two-stage FCFF (Damodaran)

Projects revenue, operating margin and reinvestment, then discounts free cash flow to the firm at the weighted cost of capital.

Value per share: −$303.97 / $36.29 / $362.12 (conservative / base / optimistic)

Starting Damodaran FCFF$1.9B
Growth: conservative / base / optimistic (2015–2025)25.0% / 25.0% / 35.0%
Projection10 years
Risk-free rate5.28%
Equity risk premium4.15%
Beta1.00
Cost of equity9.43%
After-tax cost of debt10.02%
Equity weight75%
WACC (discount rate)9.57%
Target operating margin (base)3.2%
High-growth stage5 years
Terminal growth2.5%
Shares outstanding224M

This briefing is from May 8, 2026. A fresh one re-reads the latest filings and prices; running it takes a free account.

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